New Seat Details - Darlaston and Tipton

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Darlaston and Tipton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	27,393	57.8%
CON	16,890	35.6%
UKIP	2,444	5.2%
LIB	424	0.9%
Green	238	0.5%
OTH	26	0.1%
LAB Majority	10,503	22.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Darlaston and Tipton: Map

List of old seats forming part of Darlaston and Tipton

Old seat: Walsall South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walsall South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Walsall South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Walsall	Bentley and Darlaston North	8,927	Darlaston and Tipton	1,914	3,885	82	290	0	0	0	0	6,171
Walsall	Darlaston South	9,210	Darlaston and Tipton	2,124	3,809	78	335	0	0	0	0	6,346
Walsall	Paddock	9,429	Walsall and Oscott	2,992	2,378	87	219	0	0	0	0	5,676
Walsall	Palfrey	9,880	Walsall and Oscott	2,101	4,915	80	295	0	0	0	0	7,391
Walsall	Pheasey Park Farm	8,782	Walsall and Oscott	2,737	1,915	107	244	0	0	0	0	5,003
Walsall	Pleck	8,969	Darlaston and Tipton	1,935	4,659	41	149	0	0	0	0	6,784
Walsall	St Matthew's	9,218	Walsall and Oscott	2,591	3,724	112	272	0	0	0	0	6,699
	Total	64,415		16,394	25,285	587	1,804	0	0	0	0	44,070

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walsall South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sandwell	Charlemont with Grove Vale	9,132	West Bromwich	2,649	2,489	69	0	98	0	0	57	5,362
Sandwell	Friar Park	8,741	West Bromwich	2,042	3,400	58	0	44	0	0	38	5,582
Sandwell	Great Barr with Yew Tree	9,438	West Bromwich	2,482	2,745	247	0	73	0	0	40	5,587
Sandwell	Greets Green and Lyng	8,042	Darlaston and Tipton; West Bromwich	1,582	3,510	45	0	82	0	0	55	5,274
Sandwell	Hateley Heath	9,379	West Bromwich	2,123	3,926	57	0	93	0	0	45	6,244
Sandwell	Newton	8,544	West Bromwich	2,321	2,640	89	0	48	0	0	39	5,137
Sandwell	West Bromwich Central	8,757	West Bromwich	1,751	3,955	60	0	96	0	0	51	5,913
	Total	62,033		14,950	22,665	625	0	534	0	0	325	39,099

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sandwell	Great Bridge	9,166	Darlaston and Tipton	2,085	2,729	44	349	65	0	0	0	5,272
Sandwell	Oldbury	9,188	Warley	2,034	2,984	66	323	62	0	0	0	5,469
Sandwell	Princes End	8,856	Darlaston and Tipton	2,031	2,659	30	377	25	0	0	0	5,122
Sandwell	Tipton Green	9,619	Darlaston and Tipton	2,070	2,698	38	319	26	0	0	0	5,151
Sandwell	Tividale	8,850	Warley	2,139	2,455	65	326	64	0	0	0	5,049
Sandwell	Wednesbury North	8,959	Darlaston and Tipton	1,996	2,586	39	305	58	0	0	0	4,984
Sandwell	Wednesbury South	9,325	Darlaston and Tipton	1,974	2,678	50	320	25	0	0	0	5,047
	Total	63,963		14,329	18,789	332	2,319	325	0	0	0	36,094

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Darlaston and Tipton

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Darlaston and Tipton
Sandwell	Great Bridge	9,632	West Bromwich West	2,085	2,729	44	349	65	0	0	0	5,272
Sandwell	Greets Green and Lyng	4,144	West Bromwich East	761	1,690	22	0	39	0	0	26	2,538
Sandwell	Princes End	9,360	West Bromwich West	2,031	2,659	30	377	25	0	0	0	5,122
Sandwell	Tipton Green	9,414	West Bromwich West	2,070	2,698	38	319	26	0	0	0	5,151
Sandwell	Wednesbury North	9,108	West Bromwich West	1,996	2,586	39	305	58	0	0	0	4,984
Sandwell	Wednesbury South	9,223	West Bromwich West	1,974	2,678	50	320	25	0	0	0	5,047
Walsall	Bentley and Darlaston North	9,440	Walsall South	1,914	3,885	82	290	0	0	0	0	6,171
Walsall	Darlaston South	9,707	Walsall South	2,124	3,809	78	335	0	0	0	0	6,346
Walsall	Pleck	10,377	Walsall South	1,935	4,659	41	149	0	0	0	0	6,784
	Total	80,405		16,890	27,393	424	2,444	238	0	0	26	47,415

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Darlaston and Tipton. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Adrian Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	80,405
Turnout:	59.0%

Darlaston and Tipton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Darlaston and Tipton: Overview

Introduction